GDP Growth, Relative to Pre-Covid Levels, Doubles to 8.0% in Q2 FY2023: ICRA


Mumbai, Sept. 15 (IANS) Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to double to 8 percent in Q2FY23, from 3.8 percent in Q1FY23, according to ICRA (NS:) estimates.

“We project GDP growth at 6.5-7.0 percent for the second quarter of FY2023, moderated by a base effect of 13.5 percent in the first quarter of 2023. Crucially, GDP growth to expected to rise to ~8.0 percent in the second quarter of FY2023 from 3.8 percent in the first quarter of FY2023, compared to 2019 pre-Covid levels, providing a more tangible signal of the ongoing, but uneven, recovery,” said Aditi Nayar, chief economist, ICRA.

Momentum in economic activity picked up in August 2022 amid some moderation in rainfall, easing supply-side issues such as the availability of semiconductors for the auto sector, and pre-festive stockpiling, even as the slowdown in stocks continued. the foreign demand a damper works .

In YoY terms, the performance of nine of the 16 high-frequency indicators, including GST e-way bill generation, motorcycle and passenger car (PV) production, vehicle registrations, consumption of finished steel, gasoline and diesel, improved by August 2022 at compared to July 2022.

Meanwhile, the early data in the current month is mixed. Electricity demand across India saw a healthy increase in September 1-13, 2022 as a result of moderate rainfall early in the month. However, average daily vehicle registrations so far have recorded a sharp ~7 percent MoM decline in September 2022.

ICRA expects registrations to increase during the Navratri season, the onset of the 15-day Sradh period is likely to limit the total store volumes in the month.

ICRA is cautiously optimistic that the pre-festive supply implied by the record-high generation of GST e-waybills in August 2022 is indicative of a resurgence in confidence and imminent improvement in demand for goods.



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