US CPI, FTX Meltdown Hits Crypto, Putin Skips G20 – What Moves Markets?


By Geoffrey Smith — US inflation is expected to fall for the fourth straight month – but be sure to read beyond the headlines. Cryptocurrencies falter again as Binance abandons its half-hearted attempt to rescue FTX, leaving Sam Bankman-Fried’s empire on the brink of collapse. Stocks are set at a higher edge but are in a holding pattern ahead of the CPI print. Joe Biden says he plans to run for re-election after escaping a beating in the midterm elections, but there is silence from his predecessor Donald Trump. Oil prices are falling again after weak credit data from China – and Vladimir Putin is too busy dealing with a deteriorating situation in Ukraine to attend the G20 summit. Here’s what you need to know in the financial markets on Thursday, November 10.

1. CPI is going down, but the devil is in the details

The headline is expected to calm down for the fourth straight month when the official data is released at 08:30 ET (13:30 GMT), but a detailed look at the numbers is likely to paint a less encouraging picture.

According to consensus forecasts, the annualized CPI rate is down from 8.2% to 8.0%, but the monthly dynamics will remain strong, rising 0.6% and up 0.5% in . This reflects accelerating inflation in the services sector, which is replacing energy and food as the main driver of inflation.

Weekly are scheduled at the same time but predate the drama of this week’s job cuts at Big Tech. Regional Federal Reserve presidents and both will speak later and may have something to say about both sets of numbers.

2. Crypto Collapses as Binance Gives the coup d’état to FTX

Cryptocurrency is in full retreat mode after Binance pulled out of a rescue of rival FTX, saying its rival’s problems were too big to solve.

The spectacular fall of FTX is another devastating blow to the crypto universe, underscoring that the backing of big venture capitalists in an age of easy money was not the guarantee of solidity that many believed it was. Sequoia Capital, which participated in FTX’s financing round earlier this year at a valuation of $32 billion, said it would write down its investment to zero.

slumped overnight to a two-year low of $15,588, before recovering to trade at $16,291 by 6:20 AM ET, down 8.7% on the day. It has lost about a quarter of its value since the magnitude of FTX’s problems began to become apparent. FTX’s native token, meanwhile, has taken a similar path to Celsius Network’s earlier this year, dropping more than 90% in a week. According to Financial Times sources, FTX has an $8 billion deficit in its accounts.

3. Stocks set higher before the CPI report; EV makers, luxury groups in focus

US stocks will open higher later, making up some of their losses on Wednesday, which were largely driven by the defeat in crypto (as well as concerns about the outcome of the midterm elections.

At 6:20 am ET, they were up 83 points, or 0.3%, as they were up 0.4% and up 0.6%.

Stocks likely to come into the picture later on include Chinese EV maker Nio (NYSE:), which rose premarket after maintaining its predictions of a big sales increase in the current quarter as production of its ET5 sedan ramps up. However, the net loss increased sharply. AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:) will also be in the spotlight after the Anglo-Swedish pharmaceutical company far surpassed estimates for the third quarter and raised its expectations for the full year. Steelmaker ArcelorMittal (NYSE:), on the other hand, missed forecasts overnight.

Becton Dickinson (NYSE:), Ralph Lauren (NYSE:) and Tapestry (NYSE:) top the list of early earnings updates.

4. Biden announces intention to drive by 2024; Trump’s silence

US President Joe Biden declared his intention to run for re-election in 2024 after escaping a widely predicted wipeout in the midterm elections on Tuesday.

While the Biden Democrats certainly appear to have lost control of the House of Representatives, they may still retain control of the Senate, although that will depend on a runoff in Georgia, as was the case in 2020.

By contrast, there has been no announcement from Donald Trump about his intentions for 2024, after a number of candidates he backed underperformed in their races. The election appears to have caused a marked turnaround in Republican opinion, recognizing that Trump may not be their best shot at success in the 2024 White House race.

5. Oil falls on weak credit data in China; Putin skips G20 as Ukraine’s troubles mount

The price of crude oil hit a new low in two weeks after new evidence of the economic slowdown in China: the banking system fell to its lowest level in more than five years in October, according to the People’s Bank of China.

The outlook for global oil supplies, meanwhile, looks bleak after Russia’s withdrawal from the main Ukrainian city of Kherson, announced on Wednesday, undermined President Vladimir Putin’s power. Putin will not attend the G20 summit in Indonesia later this month, the foreign ministry said.

At 6:40 AM ET, futures fell 0.8% to $85.16 a barrel, while futures fell to $92.10 a barrel.

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